10 October 2011

PSEi 4,040.58. +31.32 points. +0.78%.

Asian stocks closed mixed.

Many have been anticipating and calling last Friday’s 4,009.26 a “bull trap”. But today’s higher close suggests otherwise.

Value turnover was below average at 3.4-billion Pesos only, despite longer trading hours. The recent bounce off PSEi 3,721.22 looks promising. Just be aware of the underlying fundamentals of the world economy.

The way I see it, based on the trends emerging from Europe, even if short-term default is avoided, Greek default will happen in the longer run. Two factors may cause this, possibly even both at the same time: 1. European reluctance in providing ever-increasing financial support, and 2. Greek reluctance in accepting increasingly harsher austerity measures, especially in the face of a faltering economy.

Greece is at a crossroads. Will it reach the point where they can’t or won’t anymore pay their debts? The world awaits the Troika Report.

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