27 February 2012

PSEi 4,799.29. -93.71 points. -1.92%.

A number of parabolic spikes stuttered today from their lofty highs: IRC -18.33%, MHC -16.25%, UBP -15.56%, AEV -11.31%, PSE -8.04%.

The coming trading days will give further clues whether these uptrends are indeed over. You want them to resume making higher highs, if you intend to keep holding. If they persist in making lower lows, booking profits (or losses) would be the trend-follower’s normal course of action.

Between Feb.2 to Feb.16 this year, the PSEi established the 4,800 level as short-term resistance. On Feb.17, the index charged right through resistance to close at 4,879.88. In hindsight, Feb.20 and 22 showed us a double-top (4,941.06 and 4,942.88, respectively). Yesterday, Feb.27, the PSEi tumbled all the way down to essentially the 4,800 level. The former resistance is now support. We’ll see today if it holds.

There was an interesting article called “Hunting the Hunters” that came out in the papers yesterday. The article was about the takeover rumors surrounding UBP, with a short lookback at BDO’s acquisition of EPCI back in 2007.

Today, an interesting news article of a different type just came out, “Aboitiz quashes rumors on sale of Union Bank.”

Did the general trading public just turn from “predator” to “prey”?

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